Fire Outlook Points to Elevated Summer Risk
The June outlook from the National Interagency Fire Center shows above-normal significant fire potential expanding across much of the Northwest and Northern California this summer.
MEDFORD, Ore. — The latest national wildfire outlook points to elevated fire potential across much of the West this summer, including Northern California and portions of Oregon, as warmer temperatures, dry fuels and low snowpack continue to shape the early fire season.
The National Significant Wildland Fire Potential Outlook, issued June 1 by Predictive Services at the National Interagency Fire Center, covers the period from June through September 2026.
For Southern Oregon and Northern California, the report shows a summer fire season that is expected to build as fuels continue drying, with above-normal significant fire potential already present in Northern California and expanding across the Northwest later in the season.
Above-normal significant wildland fire potential does not mean large fires are certain. It means there is a greater-than-usual likelihood that significant wildland fires will occur. Areas shown as normal can still experience wildfires, but at typical seasonal timing and frequency.
Nationally, wildfire activity remained low but persistent through May. NIFC reported that, as of May 31, 30,588 wildfires had burned 2,412,214 acres across the country. That is 140% of the previous 10-year average for fire count and 195% of the average acreage burned.
The national preparedness level remained at Level 2 on a five-level scale through May.
The National Interagency Fire Center’s June 2026 outlook shows above-normal significant wildland fire potential across much of the West, including Northern California and portions of Oregon. Map courtesy of Predictive Services, National Interagency Fire Center.
In the Northwest, which includes Oregon and Washington, the report says significant fire potential is expected to increase during June. East-side Predictive Services Areas are expected to shift to above normal as live fuels cure, dead fuels dry and early snowpack loss exposes higher-elevation fuels ahead of schedule.
The outlook notes that May was warm and generally dry across Oregon and Washington, with temperatures running 3 to 7 degrees above normal in many areas. Most locations received less than 30% to 50% of normal precipitation. While some parts of south-central Oregon saw localized precipitation, the broader pattern remained dry.
Drought also expanded across both states in May. The report notes increased abnormally dry and moderate drought coverage across central and eastern Oregon, with severe drought growing across south-central and southeast Oregon.
The July 2026 outlook shows above-normal significant wildland fire potential persisting across Northern California and expanding across parts of the Northwest, including southwest Oregon. Map courtesy of Predictive Services, National Interagency Fire Center.
By July, above-normal fire potential is expected to persist across east-side areas of the Northwest and expand into portions of southwest Oregon and northwest Washington. By August, NIFC expects above-normal significant fire potential across all Northwest Predictive Services Areas, including the west side. The September outlook also keeps above-normal potential across the entire Northwest Geographic Area.
Northern California is also flagged for elevated concern. The report projects near to above-normal significant fire potential during June, then mainly above-normal potential from July through September outside of some coastal areas.
The August 2026 outlook shows above-normal significant wildland fire potential across Oregon, Washington and Northern California as summer drying continues across the Northwest. Map courtesy of Predictive Services, National Interagency Fire Center.
The Northern California section of the outlook cites poor snowpack, dry fuels, strengthening drought and the likelihood of heat, wind and lightning events as factors that could support greater-than-normal numbers of significant fires later this summer.
Snowpack remains a major concern across the West. The report says most snow is gone except at the highest elevations of the Sierra, and higher elevations above 6,000 feet still holding snow remain mostly below normal. In Northern California, the amount of moisture in the snowpack was 5% of normal or less as of May 26.
The outlook also notes that low-elevation grasses and fine fuels are curing quickly in parts of the Northwest, while the moderating effect of spring green-up is diminishing during warm and dry periods.
For residents across Southern Oregon and Northern California, the outlook is another reminder to prepare before fire activity increases.
NIFC and federal emergency officials encourage households to review wildfire plans, create evacuation checklists, strengthen defensible space around homes and stay alert for local fire restrictions, red flag warnings and evacuation notices as conditions change.
The next National Significant Wildland Fire Potential Outlook is scheduled to be issued July 1.
Cover image: A file photo shows the Van Meter Fire burning in Klamath County in 2022. The National Interagency Fire Center’s June outlook points to elevated wildfire potential across Northern California and portions of Oregon as summer conditions build. Photo by Brian Gailey / KFN (HiveWire Daily archives).
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